Notes For Monday, October 28, 2002

The Margin of Error:

Florida Today reports the following under the headline "Governor increases lead over McBride in new poll" (emphasis supplied):

"Bush leads McBride 52 percent to 45 percent, according to a poll conducted Oct. 22-24 by SurveyUSA for television stations WTLV/WJXX in Jacksonville and Gannett newspapers in Florida. The margin of error is 4 percent. Compared with a similar survey two weeks ago, Bush gained two points and McBride dropped two points. That poll showed Bush with 50 percent and McBride with 47 percent."

The headline "Governor Increases Lead" misrepresents what is meant by the "margin of error" and erroneously credits Bush with increasing his "lead". The percentage of people who say they support Bush is within 4 points of the percentage who said they supported Bush in the previous poll (52% to 50). Same goes for McBride (45%.to 47%) So statistically, there is no change from the previous poll. Bush has made no measurable improvement on his lead over McBride.

More on the margin of error here, as well as in a more lengthy pdf piece here.

6:05 AM [Go to current Florida Politics site (no popup ads)]

Oct 22 - 24 Poll: Bush 52%, McBride 45%, 3% undecided; 4% margin of error. Conducted by SurveyUSA 6:02 AM [Go to current Florida Politics site (no popup ads)]


Trotting out crime victims was one of "a string of Bush campaign events this month that offered existing ideas as new proposals." Article. 5:32 AM [Go to current Florida Politics site (no popup ads)]


More Newspaper Endorsements: The News Chief of Winter Haven and The Ledger of Lakeland endorsed John Ellis Bush.

McBride was endorsed by Florida Today. the Bradenton Herald and The Gainesville Sun.

As of Sunday, McBride had ten endorsements to Bush's eight. 5:21 AM [Go to current Florida Politics site (no popup ads)]